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Political climate makes 2008 McCain-Lieberman ticket viable

12 November 2006

 

For several years, the idea of a McCain-Lieberman "unity" ticket has been occasionally raised in fringe centrist and independent circles. Both McCain and Lieberman have flatly denied interest in crossing party lines to join a unity ticket. For example, McCain shrugged off suggestions of a 2004 Kerry-McCain ticket. However, Lieberman's independent mid-term election victory, fueled primarily by Republican and Independent support, and his flexible voting record suggests that he is a Democrat more in title than reality, yet with strong appeal to centrist Democrats. The unique cross-party support for McCain and Lieberman, the mid-term power grab by centrist candidates, and the mid-term muscle-flexing by independent voters suggest that a McCain-Lieberman ticket is viable and could not only win the 2008 presidential election, but also manufacture the post-election political coalitions needed to effectively govern.

Admittedly, a McCain-Lieberman ticket would have disadvantages in mounting a competitive campaign. They would lack the refined political machine that the parties enjoy to raise funds, gather endorsements, and get voters to the polls. Further, they would need to overcome entrenched party loyalty and the voters' ever-present fear of "wasting a vote." More importantly, each candidate would likely feel personal pressure stemming from the redefinition of their political identities and the loss of elements of their long-standing support networks. Yet, the idea, as this article will argue, is feasible for several reasons.

Accepted by both sides, favored by independents, and aligned with "progressive" movement

McCain and Lieberman appeal to elements within the Republican and Democratic political bases. In the Connecticut mid-term Senate race, the "independent" Lieberman received votes from nearly 70% of Republicans and 40% of Democrats. His Democratic opponent received more votes from Democrats, but Lieberman remained strongly supported by voters from his former party. In the 2004 Arizona Senate race, McCain received votes from 94% of Republicans and 52% of Democrats. Similar appeal for McCain and Lieberman can be seen at the national level. For example, in May 2006, 50% of Democrats and 66% of Republicans claimed to have a favorable opinion of McCain. Yet, McCain and Lieberman derive their strength more from their appeal to the growing class of independent voters than from the modest support they enjoy within the traditional party ranks.

Party affiliation is dropping. Since 2004, the percentage of Americans that do not affiliate themselves with any party - independents - has risen from 26.1% in 2004 to 28.8% in 2005 to 30.4% in 2006 (poll). That number is likely higher in the wake of the mid-term elections. In 2005, the Pew Research Trusts completed a survey report entitled "Beyond Red vs. Blue" that revealed "major fissures within one or both parties" for several issues such as environmentalism, government regulation, isolationism vs. global activism, and immigration.* These fissures and the increasing inclination toward voter independence yield a new dynamic in U.S. politics. The Rovian strategy - to "appeal to the base" - that worked for Republicans in 2000, 2002, and 2004 did not work in 2006 because independent voters rejected the policies that appealed to the Republican base and the politicians that supported them. Independents that previously voted for Republican candidates sided with the only alternative available to them: the Democrats. Yet, the viability of the Democrats as an alternative stemmed in part from the candidates they put forth: a "progressive" group labeled for their similarity to the early twentieth century political movement that produced Teddy Roosevelt's failed third party bid.

McCain and Lieberman appeal heavily to independent voters, whose importance to national elections was underestimated in the mid-terms. Lieberman received more than 50% of the independent vote en route to his victory as an independent in the Connecticut mid-term Senate race. In the 2004 Arizona Senate race, McCain received 76% of the independent vote. On the national level, 53% of independents claim to have a favorable opinion of McCain. Since independent voters make-up more than 30% of the electorate, a 2008 election victory derived from an appeal only to a Republican or Democratic base seems unlikely. Therefore, each party is now faced with a battle to strongly appeal to common ground - the middle - while paradoxically aiming to draw distinction from their opposition, who is also appealing to that common ground. A McCain-Lieberman ticket would be more at home and less hypocritical in this arena than the parties.

The mid-terms demonstrated America's heightened interest in centrist politics and McCain and Lieberman have long been the best known centrist candidates from their respective parties. Now that Lieberman has been freed from his party, a McCain-Lieberman ticket is viable.

A momentary departure from the "third party" axiom?

The political axiom concerning third party candidates, which a McCain-Lieberman ticket would essentially be, is that if elected they will lack the ability to form the political coalitions needed to effectively govern. Party leaders select committee chairpersons, decide which bills will be considered for a vote, and otherwise set the legislative agenda. Third party minorities have traditionally had little ability to influence these processes. A McCain-Lieberman ticket would have little - if any - institutional support in congress to push its agenda.

However, the current political climate suggests an opportunity for McCain and Lieberman that is contrary to the traditional axiom. The mid-terms saw the election of a set of candidates that defied tradition. Many of the newly elected Democrats have notable appeal to moderate Republican voters because they espouse bipartisan ideals. Their open-mindedness was a crucial factor in their success. As a result of the mid-term elections, the Republican party is no doubt learning that it will need to back more universally appealing candidates in 2008, thus partly shunning its base, if it intends regain ground. In other words, both parties are now moving toward supporting candidates that have appeal across party lines. These candidates are issues-based and not necessarily party-based. The model that made these candidates successful in 2006 promotes a political ambiguity, if not promiscuity, that will permit coalition-building with a McCain-Lieberman ticket. Undoubtedly, party politics will not disappear, but for the near-term, the bitter partisanship that has reigned for years, which backed political posturing over problem solving, will be unhelpful to candidates seeking reelection in 2008 and probably beyond. The fledgling records of America's newest congress members will be harshly compared to the progressive promises they made leading up to the mid-terms.

Because 2006 has reintroduced America's political system to a divided government, it appears unlikely that the more contentious issues, such as the war in Iraq, will soon disappear or find resolution. Therefore, the current temperament of the voters, which is fueled by these issues, may remain for several years. However, political winds can shift quickly and the current political climate may not exist for the long-term, so the viability of a 2008 McCain-Lieberman ticket may be a fleeting moment in American history.

NOTE TO READERS: Please participate in our uniquely crafted survey aimed at characterizing America's current political ideologies.


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* These few sentences are copied almost verbatim from our 15 September 2006 article, "The growing marginalization of major political parties."

Sources for poll data: SurveyUSA, CNN, Polling Report

 

 

 

 

 
 

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