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The geopolitical importance of Iran

02 December 2006

 

Iran is quickly becoming one of the most geopolitically important players on the international scene.  Iran’s influence in the Middle East is significant and growing and the importance of the Middle East to global security has – arguably – never been higher.  The geopolitical importance of the Middle East stems from its rich supply of oil and natural gas resources, its central geographic location, and its export of violent or revolutionary ideologies to other parts of the world.  Iran is important to all of these factors.  Further, Iran is sought as a strategic partner by Russia, China, and many powerful European nations for economic and political reasons.  As a result, Iran has sufficient leverage over powerful elements of the international community that enables it to prevent meaningful coalitions from forming against it.  Therefore, Iran is able to further its strategic objectives with few setbacks.

 

Iran is engaged in several strategic initiatives that threaten U.S. interests, and in some cases, security.  Those initiatives, which are interrelated, include:

 

Obtain a nuclear deterrent.  Iran has consistently claimed that it has no intention of halting its Uranium enrichment program or other elements of its nuclear program.  Although Iran claims that its enrichment activities and nuclear program are for the creation of “peaceful” nuclear power, its behavior suggests otherwise.  Iran is following the path used by other nations that have sought or obtained nuclear weapons for strategic purposes.  It is reasonable, if not prudent, to assume that Iran is developing nuclear weapons, not only because of its unnecessarily suspicious behavior, but also because nuclear weapons are strategically important and will provide Iran a deterrent shield that would permit it greater freedom to maintain or escalate its proxy wars against Israel and the West.

 

Negate Iraq as a regional power.  Iran has three primary objectives in Iraq aiming to prevent Iraq's resurgence as a regional power and remove - or greatly reduce - the U.S. footprint in the region.  These objectives are:

 

1. Maintain control over dominant Shiite political and military elements in Iraq.  Iran's control over majority political elements will continue to provide it notable influence in Iraq, even if Iraq establishes a functional democracy.

 

2. Maintain Shiite political dominance over Iraq or establish a separate Shiite state.  A civil war in Iraq could benefit Iran because Iraqi Shia control large portions of Iraq's territory and oil resources.  Further, splitting Iraq into Kurdish, Sunni, and Shiite regions will lessen the need for Shia to compromise with Sunni and Kurdish factions and prevent the formation of an Iraqi regime capable of threatening Iran.  In other words, Iran's strategic interests are largely indifferent to a civil war in Iraq, as long as it does not spread to Iran.

 

3. Facilitate the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq or severely diminish their freedom of action, particularly within Shiite-controlled areas.  The presence of U.S. forces in Iraq and Afghanistan provide the U.S. an invaluable geographical location from which it could "contain" or potentially invade Iran, or so Iran fears.  Further, U.S. forces in Iraq inhibit the Shiite militias, as U.S. forces periodically target them.  Yet, as Iraqi security forces, which are predominantly Shia, "step up," the potential exists for U.S. forces to have fewer opportunities and authority to act throughout Iraq.  [This section is excerpted from our report: Iran finalizing its control of Iraq.]

 

End Israel’s existence.  Iran has been clear that it seeks the elimination of Israel.  President Ahmadinejad recently claimed that he merely seeks a political end to Israel, but Iran’s military support for Hamas and Hizballah, terrorist organizations actively engaged in attacks against Israel, suggests otherwise.  Any U.S. course of action that leads to either a U.S. withdrawal from Iraq or limits U.S. freedom of action in Iraq will likely trigger an increase in Iranian-sponsored attacks against Israel.  The reasons behind this judgment include: (1) Shiite territories in Iraq, which are heavily influenced by Iran, can serve as a land bridge between Iran and Syria and ease the flow of weapons from Iran to Hizballah and Hamas; (2) Since Iran plays a key role in opposing the U.S. occupation in Iraq, a perceived victory will likely embolden Iran; and (3) A perceived victory in Iraq will lessen Iran’s need to focus its resources – particularly those of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) – on Iraq.  Therefore, Iran will be free to shift its resources to better support the “armed resistance” against Israel.
 

Spread the Revolution.  This expression captures the lasting cause of the 1979 Iranian revolution and is a crucial driver for Iran’s foreign policy.  Revolutionary language is common among the vernacular of Iran’s ruling elite and is also used by many of Iran’s strategic allies, such as Lebanese Hizballah, Venezuela, and Cuba.  The recent meeting of the Non-aligned Movement in Havana introduced the world to – what I shall call – the Coalescing Coalition of Anti-Western Revolutionaries, which is informally led by Iran.  Spreading the revolution means attacking the West at every opportunity, fostering extremist ideologies, and attaining Iranian preeminence.

 

Related:

Iran finalizing its control of Iraq

    Judgment: Iran - not al Qaeda or the insurgency - is the primary threat to Iraq's democratic viability and is an immediate threat to U.S. influence in the Middle East. Iran's upper hand means it has no need for or interest in compromise. Options for combating Iran's influence are assessed.

Iran to host Holocaust conference

    Judgment: Iran’s support for holocaust revisionists appears strategically aimed to undermine Israel’s most-widely accepted reason for existence.

Iran tells Talabani that US-led forces must leave Iraq

    Judgment: Iran’s Supreme Leader provides his assessment of diminishing U.S. political will in Iraq, and appeals to the Iraqi PM to help achieve Iran’s final objective in Iraq: U.S. withdrawal.

Iranian Weapons Arm Iraqi Militia: Hezbollah Training Also Linked to Iraq Violence

    Judgment: The public evidence of Iran's support to militias in Iraq is mounting.  This support likely aims to (1) weaken Sunni elements to enhance Shiite control and (2) complicate U.S. efforts to establish a strong central Iraqi government.

 

PS:

Our assessment of Iran's motivation for Holocaust revisionism is proving correct.  Consider this quote from opening remarks at Iran's Holocaust conference: "If the official version of the Holocaust is thrown into doubt, then the identity and nature of Israel will be thrown into doubt. If... it is proved that the Holocaust was a historical reality, then what is the reason for the Palestinians having to pay the cost of the Nazis' crimes?"